A report by Goldman Sachs estimates that car sales will reach 20% of total sales between 2025 and 2030. The same report claims that job losses could hit 25,000 a month when it peaks.
Those are some scary numbers, mainly if you make a living in an industry likely to be affected by this new technology. The public sentiment reflects this, with a Pew study concluding that public opinion is still very much in the balance.
It’s also not just Silicon Valley startups trying to hype it up as the next big thing . Even established industry giants, like Hyundai, are getting in on the action with their recently debuted Smart Cruise Control-Machine Learning technology.
With so much push behind AI, it’s clear we are going to live through a time of significant change in the job market. The first step to future-proofing ourselves is to understand who it might affect and what the possible implications might be.
Who will be the hardest hit?
Truck and heavy vehicle drivers
Long-distance truck and heavy vehicle drivers are estimated to take the hardest hit by the coming of autonomous vehicles. Even though these vehicles are harder to drive, the fact that they mostly use highways where navigation is much easier makes them a prime target for automation.
The good news is that truck driving jobs are still projected to grow by 5% until 2028. That’s the same as the average for all occupations and is driven by the increasing need for goods. Currently, there are around 1,958,000 heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers employed.
The median pay for truck drivers is about $43,680, which is well below the median household income.
Delivery and e-hailing services
These are some of the most obvious lines of work called into question when thinking about the jobs autonomous vehicles could replace. It’s not hard to imagine a fleet of drone-like Uber vehicles driving around town, ready to pick up and drop off taking away deliveries or passengers.
Silicon Valley startup Nuro has already experimented with automated deliveries for grocery store Kroger and Domino’s pizza. Delivery drivers face two threats with Amazon’s Prime Air coming at them from the sky at the same time as they are delving into autonomous vehicles.
Those of us who dread being trapped with a talkative Uber driver on our way home will breathe a sigh of relief. However, public trust in autonomous vehicles will likely have to be much more ubiquitous to make it viable.
It’s not all doom and gloom
Current employees
The advent of autonomous vehicles should also be good news for many whose jobs include a lot of driving, but which aren’t totally dependent on it. For example, a person will still be needed to complete a package delivery via car, at least for the foreseeable future. For them, autonomous vehicles can make their jobs much less grueling.
Startups
In the age of Silicon Valley, it seems we have no shortage of visionaries willing to bet on new technology. Autonomous vehicles are no different. While the majority of startups will just be flash in the pans, at least some will make it big, creating thousands of jobs across the board. Zoox and Aurora are only two examples of companies that have been successful so far.
Engineers, technicians, software developers and other skilled workers
Of course, autonomous technology isn’t going anywhere with skilled labor and technically-gifted innovators to drive it. Entire new niches have opened up within the autonomous vehicle space, like “perception software engineer” and “field autonomy engineer“. These types of jobs have also seen a massive uptick on sites like ZipRecruiter.
Autonomous vehicles are coming – should you be worried?
Many argue that most of the jobs replaced by autonomous vehicles are low-paying and unattractive that few will miss. Some also argue that autonomous vehicles will create just as many unskilled jobs in the form of mechanics, testers, etc.
While this may be true, we still have the social responsibility to look out for those around us. Autonomous vehicles can do many great things for our society, but that means nothing if we have to leave others behind to get there.
Sure, long-distance hauling is not a job for everyone, but there are those who love that lifestyle and have dedicated their lives to it. On the other hand, e-hailing and delivery services have been a convenient avenue for gainful employment among young adults with few other options.
The advent of AI promises to shake-up every industry like never before. While the future may hold other opportunities, we have to stay informed and alert to take hold of them.
