AI 2041: Ten Visions of Our Future is a bestselling book by two Chinese authors, and it saw the light in September 2021. One author is Kai-Fu Lee, a leading expert in artificial intelligence, formerly the president of Google China and an executive in Apple and Microsoft. Another one is Chen Qiufan, an award-winning sci-fi author known for Waste Tide and The Algorithms for Life; he also worked in Google and Baidu.
AI 2041Â consists of ten stories about different life spheres AI will change for every person. Since artificial intelligence will influence the whole world, the main characters of those stories are people from different countries: India, Nigeria, Russia, Australia, the USA, Sri Lanka, Brasil, etc.
The book is not science fiction in the conventional sense. The authors call it so because each story from AI 2041 comes with a commentary from Kai-Fu Lee telling us why his predictions are accurate and what technology they are based on. We can call these parts something like AI for Dummies: The expert explains how deep learning and deepfake, CNN neuro nets, GAN, quantum computers, virtual and augmented reality, blockchain, and other innovative technologies work.
Some call AI 2041 a book of the year for developers working with machine learning, data analysis, and data science. While it can’t serve as a cheap coding bootcamp or guide to make us specialists in the niche, it provides an opportunity to see what the world will look like in just 20 years.
Why 2041?
As Kai-Fu Lee explains, the year 2041 was not chosen by chance.
A horizon of 20 years helps to assess the possible impact of AI more accurately, as opposed to trying to look back 50 or 100 years. Another peculiarity is that the number 41 writing reminds “AI,” the book’s core subject.
So, What Waits for Us in 20 Years?
And now, let’s dive into the predictions and see how artificial intelligence will rush into different areas of our life. Twenty years are not that long to wait, huh? So we’ll have an opportunity to see if the authors were accurate in their guesses.
Life insurance and finances:
Artificial intelligence already helps a lot in banking and insurance. But this interaction will become even more powerful.
Insurance companies will create applications so we would provide access to all our data. Based on the data, the system will estimate our health and, thus, the cost of the certificate per month.
At the same time, each user will receive advice on how to improve their health: quit smoking or drive more carefully, for example. And since the cost of a family insurance certificate will be determined by each member’s behavior, relatives will take care of each other’s good habits.
Content generation:
As neural networks improve, so will deepfake technology. By 2041, these artificially created videos will no longer be distinguished by the eye. Therefore, social networks and media platforms will have to legally filter user-generated content and social signals.
It will be an arms race, as each side will try to win: Some developers will improve deepfake neural networks, while others will create detectors to combat them.
Content generation with AIÂ will have a positive effect, too. For instance, we’ll get online courses where AI-generated teacher speaks our native language. But we also need to consider the risks, those including but not limited to user disinformation and public figures discredit.
Education and learning:
AI will become our personal teacher, evaluating how well we learn the material and deal with our knowledge gaps. It will help create individual lesson plans for every student, which is now time-consuming for educators in traditional schools.
There will also be AI-generated classmates in online classes! And parents will be able to tweak their academic performance to motivate a kid to study better.
But the role of the human teacher will not disappear.
Artificial intelligence can focus on everyday learning, such as task assignments or knowledge assessments. And a human mentor will spend time teaching critical thinking, creativity, empathy, and teamwork.
Medicine and longevity:
One of the breakthroughs here could be individualized treatment, the ability to use AI for selecting medications that better suit the biological characteristics of each person. Or synthesize those medications in case of absence.
The more real-time health data we provide to “smart sensors,” the better the chances of anticipating cardiovascular and other body systems problems. And smartwatches are just the beginning: Artificial intelligence will replace routine medical functions (magnetic resonance tomography, computer tomography scans, CT scans, X-ray examination) and help with surgery, as it already does today.
Entertainment:
Virtual, augmented, and mixed reality will call the shots here. Top technology companies are already talking about metaverses that will run on these techs.
Artificial intelligence can help here with pattern-based content generation. After all, if there is not enough content on the platform, users will not come there, and the project can fail. Plus, it’s pretty expensive to create.
The goal for the nearest future is to make VR and AR devices affordable and easy to use. Otherwise, these technologies will never become mainstream.
Logistics and self-driving cars:
One of AI’s Holy Grails is self-driving cars. The world has been talking about it for decades, but technology development is not as rapid as we would like it to be.
Some cars implement partial autopilot systems already, but it is not enough for a vehicle to drive entirely without a driver. The authors of AI 2041 believe that it will become possible in the next 20 years:
The strength of autopilots, unlike humans, is that the system learns from each car. And the more data collected from test cars, the better the control becomes. A great example is Waymo of Alphabet, which gradually improves its cars by accumulating terabytes of information.
Wars and weapons:
Military developments and artificial intelligence are a rather dangerous combination. But some defense enterprises are already working in this direction.
One of the main tools here is drones. They are not restricted from moving through open territories, using computer vision, and carrying weapons.
The authors claim that the assassination attempt on the president of Venezuela in 2018 using a drone cost the perpetrators less than a thousand dollars. And an army of 10,000 such drones, capable of destroying vast areas and people, would cost $10 million, which is quite a realistic budget for the defense sector.
Job market and automatization:
AI and robotics are already replacing humans performing routine tasks. And the better models become, the more professions they’ll likely affect.
Governments will face extra challenges, such as what to do with people who lose jobs because of AI. After all, the more such people, the more considerable risks of protests and disorders.
The solution could be reskilling for occupations that aren’t in line for displacement or empowering professions through artificial intelligence.
Money and goods production:
Prosperity may become another challenge for the future. As technology advances, the notion of scarcity may disappear. It sounds utopian, but it is already there in digital products: tons of music, videos, and games on streaming services.
3D printers, synthetic food, and cheaper alternative energy will change economic models built on scarcity and lead to money revaluation. Workplace automation is also here.
How to solve this? We need to start looking for the answer now, so the question doesn’t come as a surprise in 20 years.
Is Our Future with AI Good or Bad?
Kai-Fu Lee’s view of the future with artificial intelligence is quite optimistic. His co-author Qiufan admits: If he had worked on the book independently, the texts would be more gloomy. On the other hand, one would be unlikely to invest in startups with technology he does not believe in, right?
At the same time, one should consider combining the benefits of artificial intelligence with human rights. If this succeeds, AI-based technology will become the most incredible technological breakthrough in human history.
