Political campaigns are anything but simple. Theyve gotten even more complex over the years as industries lobby for their own interests by sending money to the candidates they believe will serve them best. While campaigns have used whatever data they could get their hands on in the past, the amount of specific information now available (thanks to big data) has been a boon to politicians hoping to target specific voters and gain new support. In 2016, all of the major players are using big data in their efforts to gain office. Heres how analytics and money play a role in election outcomes.
The Obama Campaign and the Shift Toward Analytics
TV advertising segments used to play an enormous role in American politics. While theyre still a tool that campaigns use to win voters and turn opinion against opponents, theyre less important than they used to be, and theyre more targetedlargely due to the popularity of big data. Using voter databases and information provided by voter surveys, the 2008 Obama campaign used big data successfully to win Iowa, a highly competitive primary state. It didnt stop thereexperts cite the Obama campaigns use of big data and technology as a major factor in his success in both 2008 and 2012. Other tools made the campaign technologically advanced and efficient, such as a mobile app that allowed canvassers to send data to the campaign office without physically dropping it off. The big data approach was novel at the time, but campaigns since have caught up and the playing field has leveled out quite a bit.
Microtargeting in Modern Elections
Today, campaigns gather information on individual voters to help solicit donations and support. Using data collected from surveys and voter lists, analysts can create models to inform campaign strategy and launch microtargeting. Microtargeting is the technique of targeting voters with very specific characteristics, and designing materials and outreach that will likely result in increased support for the campaigns candidate. The information that is used to create these models start with voter databases, which include basic voting information and any supplemental information that can be found from other sources. Other data is collected directly from voters. Surprisingly, much of the most useful data is collected from surveys and voter behavior, rather than consumer data. Each campaign has party-specific databases and their own private databases that must be built and maintained. Once theyve built out predictive models, individual efforts like email campaigns, canvassing, and TV advertising can be directly targeted toward certain demographics and voters. This can help campaign dollars stretch further, and make more efficient use of political funds.
The Role of Big Money
Big money has always been a driving factor in political agendas and campaigns. Soliciting donors is crucial to a candidates success, and many politicians have cozied up to wealthy donors by making policy promises that appeal to big money. That hasnt changed, and probably wont anytime soon. What has changed is how that money is being spentmore funds toward microtargeting, and less toward big, sweeping advertisements.
The Downsides of Big Data in Politics
Sophisticated campaigns can leverage big data to great effect by focusing in on the information that really matters. However, successful predictive analysis requires a talented campaign data analysts to pick out whats important within the datasets. In order to survive in a cutthroat political climate, politicians need to make sure that their data scientists are up to the challenge of finding the right votersand that their campaign and project managers are up to the task of spending that money for maximum impact.
The Next Frontier: Social Media
Now that using predictive analysis from polls is commonplace, the next step for big data in politics is social media. Social media has played an active role in the 2016 election, and the amount of data on voter opinions through these platforms has been staggering. However, its harder to reach voters through digital outreach, and most campaigns have not successfully used social media data to reach their most coveted voters. As analysis methods for social media engagement become solidified, we can expect to see this data play a bigger role in future races. For now, its just a platform for politicians and voters to argue about who should have the privilege of running our country. And, as Obama has experienced since the introduction of the Affordable Care Act, success depends on the outcomes of so many electionsnot just one.
