Analytics has been changing the landscape of baseball for almost 20 years, providing deeper insights into players performances far beyond what can be seen by even the most exceptional coaches and scouts. Hockey has been far slower to adapt but, in a turbulent time under an unpopular NHL commissioner, teams are slowly learning to apply big data to their advantage.
Resistance
So why has hockey been struggling to keep up?
First of all, the game doesnt lend itself to the concept quite like baseball. With set positions (in and outfield, catcher, etc) and specific actions (hit, pitch, etc) unique for each, collecting data from the sparsely populated baseball diamond is fairly simple compared with the relative chaos of hockeys furious speed.
It wasnt until Jim Corsi, an obscure goaltending coach, began developing his own method of assessing how much work his goalies were actually doing, beyond just blocking, that hockey took its first baby-steps into this exciting new realm.
The Corsi rating was eventually developed into a plus-or-minus stat that accounts for all of a players shots (goals, misses, and blocked shots). This provides not only a proxy for possession, but for how often a player is in a shooting position against how often he allows an opponent into one.
While Corsis approach wasnt without critics, pay disputes and the resulting 2004-05 lockout, it handed inspired fans plenty of time to start working on their own methods, with the seemingly most effective ones spreading like riot across social media.
And yet, a decade later, hockeys analytics revolution has only just gotten underway.
Perhaps the largest obstacle has been the NHLs traditionalist vanguard. The organizations front office elite has been particularly disparaging of the practice, paranoid to the threat posed by our new computer overlords. It seems you cant teach an old boys club new tricks!
However, once one team starts using analytics, the others must adapt or be at a constant disadvantage. Good results equal good business. As one Pittsburgh Penguins rep put it, the old ways have become a little dangerous as we move into multimillion-dollar contracts and long-term deals.
Look no further than the Los Angeles Kings and Chicago Blackhawks for proof. Both sides were early and effective adopters of analytics. Each has won two Stanley Cups since 2010. Between them, only Chicago had won it before, and not since 1961!
Hockeys Future
The Corsi rating has since snowballed into a huge business. Utahs Sports Analytics Institute has created a sophisticated computer model that can go so far as to predict the likelihood of a goal at the very moment a shot is taken. On a more long-term scale, it can estimate the contribution of any given player to his team along a timeframe varying from one game to an entire career!
The biggest foreseeable difference fans can expect to see is the emergence of obscure talents and the ascent of smaller teams (especially if and when the league expands). Though the highest-earners may continue throwing money at the MVPs, coaches on more stringent budgets will have the means to seek out the most cost-effective players and strategically exploit their less obvious merits.
As for what happens on the ice, the first thing to go is arguably one of hockeys top draws: the body check. Players whose main purpose is to keep opponents away from the puck typically dont spend much time with it themselves. Being tough to beat doesnt win games, it just slows them down.
On that note, many of the teams renowned for their particular style of play may find themselves forced to consider other options. This doesnt necessarily mean a complete change of technique (though it may for some), but that theyll be able to recruit players that will offer them a hell of a lot more flexibility.
That one of the NHLs most valuable franchises, the Toronto Maple Leafs, have only made the playoffs once since the lost season of 2004-05 may be no coincidence. Despite the desperate concessions theyve made in the previous months, theyve been as staunchly physical as they have anti-analytics, and although some fans may rue a softer game, others will no doubt welcome a faster, more fluid new era.
At least as long as its their team getting the results!
